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[stevens]

Ray kurzweil (a futurist) got his predictions for the future late by a factor of 1.5. This is because he thinked that computational price efficiency was doubling every 12 months in 1999 but in fact it was doubling every 18 months at the time before moore's law flattening (he talks about this 12 month increase in his books). He got his predictions right but late by a factor of 1.5.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Koomey%27s_law

Koomey law was discovered in 2010 and describes it
https://www.infoworld.com/article/2620185/koomey-s-law--computing-efficiency-keeps-pace-with-moore-s-law.html

Here is a video on this 1.5x increase.


The predictions for 2009 made by Ray Kurzweil are late also in 2014 using my 1.5 method (if you use this method you get 2014 for 2009) but not late in 2016, this is because moore's law was slowing down at that time, but it´s replacement it´s coming and it will get us back to the trendline because of the high demand there is for computation. (he also predicted moores law slowing and it ending around 2020 but this predicton doesn´t need the price efficiency information/data to be predicted)

-2035 Slow down aging (this was predicted in his book transcend as 2023)
-2044 androids (weak ai is not alive, strong ai is alive but weak ai can imitate human behavior also) (so this robots would need weak ai)
-2044 longevity escape velocity
-2044 i believe this could be the time we get a non-invasive procedure with nanobots as an alternative to LL and it woud be able to be done in all the bones
-2051.5 reverse aging (also in his book transcend as 2034)

[Dexter5729]

Ray kurzweil (a futurist) got his predictions for the future late by a factor of 1.5. This is because he thinked that computational price efficiency was doubling every 12 months in 1999 but in fact it was doubling every 18 months at the time before moore's law flattening (he talks about this 12 month increase in his books). He got his predictions right but late by a factor of 1.5.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Koomey%27s_law

Koomey law was discovered in 2010 and describes it
https://www.infoworld.com/article/2620185/koomey-s-law--computing-efficiency-keeps-pace-with-moore-s-law.html

Here is a video on this 1.5x increase.


The predictions for 2009 made by Ray Kurzweil are late also in 2014 using my 1.5 method (if you use this method you get 2014 for 2009) but not late in 2016, this is because moore's law was slowing down at that time, but it´s replacement it´s coming and it will get us back to the trendline because of the high demand there is for computation. (he also predicted moores law slowing and it ending around 2020 but this predicton doesn´t need the price efficiency information/data to be predicted)

-2035 Slow down aging (this was predicted in his book transcend as 2023)
-2044 androids (weak ai is not alive, strong ai is alive but weak ai can imitate human behavior also) (so this robots would need weak ai)
-2044 longevity escape velocity
-2044 i believe this could be the time we get a non-invasive procedure with nanobots as an alternative to LL and it woud be able to be done in all the bones
-2051.5 reverse aging (also in his book transcend as 2034)

great news if these become true. Ater LL surgery, I wanna live and enjoy life so bad, much to the point that everyday is the last day. Let's live to 200 years

[Medium Drink Of Water]

Molecular manufacturing - 2020.

[stevens]

Androids mention:

https://books.google.com/books?id=BoY8ZgqdztMC&pg=PA57&lpg=PA57&dq=%22We+will+also+by+then+be+able+to+construct+fully+humanlike+androids+at+exquisite+levels+of+detail%22&source=bl&ots=TnpTgRbmsR&sig=ACfU3U1INi9Z6URUEgc1QEiYIfLdSzD4uQ&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjN9_jUhvj0AhVjkIkEHTtUAnQQ6AF6BAgCEAM#v=onepage&q=%22We%20will%20also%20by%20then%20be%20able%20to%20construct%20fully%20humanlike%20androids%20at%20exquisite%20levels%20of%20detail%22&f=false

[stevens]

Molecular manufacturing - 2020.

In this 2017 study they say that in 10 or 20 years we could start using nanobots for manufacturing

https://bigthink.com/hard-science/the-worlds-1st-molecular-robot-has-been-created-by-uk-scientists/#:~:text=This%20is%20just%20the%20start%20but%20we%20anticipate%20that%20within%2010%20to%2020%20years%20molecular%20robots%20will%20begin%20to%20be%20used%20to%20build%20molecules%20and%20materials%20on%20assembly%20lines%20in%20molecular%20factories.

He said 2020s i think (may i'm wrong) for this so it should happen between 2030.5 and 2044 using this method.

[ilovescience]

By 2044 thanks to nano robots people no longer have to worry about height 

Does that mean we just need an injection, like what we have been doing with Covid19 vaccination, then our bones would naturally grow longer like what we have experienced in puberty?

[ilovescience]

great news if these become true. Ater LL surgery, I wanna live and enjoy life so bad, much to the point that everyday is the last day. Let's live to 200 years

Do you think in another ten years most people who live in undeveloped countries may have a chance to live to 100 years old by average?

[stevens]

By 2044 thanks to nano robots people no longer have to worry about height 

Does that mean we just need an injection, like what we have been doing with Covid19 vaccination, then our bones would naturally grow longer like what we have experienced in puberty?

I don´t really know, maybe taken orally or by an injection also. For example he predicts that by 2035 most humans will have nanobots around their bodies, it will be natural to have million/billions of them inside your body. For example you will sleep and do everything with them inside.
This 2035 means 2053 with the method.

[ilovescience]

I don´t really know, maybe taken orally or by an injection also. For example he predicts that by 2035 most humans will have nanobots around their bodies, it will be natural to have million/billions of them inside your body. For example you will sleep and do everything with them inside.
This 2035 means 2053 with the method.

2053? That's still far away. I
Don't we already have nano robots in some hospitals now?

[stevens]

Do you think in another ten years most people who live in undeveloped countries may have a chance to live to 100 years old by average?

He just said around 120 years average life expectancy in 2029 (2044) in his the age of spiritual machines book.

[stevens]

2053? That's still far away. I
Don't we already have nano robots in some hospitals now?

Well i got this prediction here and i don´t know if it is a reliable source
http://1oi9.blogspot.com/2017/06/the-future-of-health-human-body-30.html
Nanobots are still Sci-Fi

[stevens]

By 2044 thanks to nano robots people no longer have to worry about height 

Does that mean we just need an injection, like what we have been doing with Covid19 vaccination, then our bones would naturally grow longer like what we have experienced in puberty?

Yes, your growth plates will be regenerated in every single bone, you would need HGH after that or some alternative to HGH but i think we will have lots by then.

[ilovescience]

Yes, your growth plates will be regenerated in every single bone, you would need HGH after that or some alternative to HGH but i think we will have lots by then.

In future, height might not be considered a way to measure beauty because everyone can be as tall as they want.

[Medium Drink Of Water]

What do you think of this prediction?



It may be smoke 'em if you've got 'em time.

[stevens]

What do you think of this prediction?



It may be smoke 'em if you've got 'em time.

I saw it

No birth rates in 2040 = companion androids, androids that talke care of children/robots will do all the old human labor and artificial wombs funding into them

[ilovescience]

I saw it

No birth rates in 2040 = companion androids, androids that talke care of children/robots will do all the old human labor and artificial wombs funding into them

Let's hope no major earthquake or war happens before 2040 as that may slow down scientific progress.

[Medium Drink Of Water]

I saw it

No birth rates in 2040 = companion androids, androids that talke care of children/robots will do all the old human labor and artificial wombs funding into them

That study predicted some worse stuff than lower birth rates.

[stevens]

That study predicted some worse stuff than lower birth rates.

Views

Doomsday seems just a few ticks away now, but time on this clock doesn´t really reflect actual time, nor is it particularly linear. In 1949, the bulletin set the clock to 3 minutes until midnight. Due to soviet union nuclear testing, and at 2 minutes until midnight in 1953 thanks to the US developing the hydrogen bomb. But a decade later, the clock turned back to 12 minutes before midnight thanks to the us and soviet union ending atmospheric nuclear testing. The minute hand has continued to fluctuacte through a range of minutes before midnight since then, from 7 minutes until in 1968 thanks to vietnam, to 10 minutes in 1972, to 3 minutes 1984 during the cold war, all the way back to 17 minutes in 1991. Right now is  100 seconds at midnight which is 1:40

[stevens]

I saw it

No birth rates in 2040 = companion androids, androids that talke care of children/robots will do all the old human labor and artificial wombs funding into them

I don´t really know if this scientists took into account the exponential rate of change in technology, my guess is that they just followed the linear one.

The exponential rate of change wasn´t recognized/acknowledged until the 1990s

[stevens]

I saw it

No birth rates in 2040 = companion androids, androids that talke care of children/robots will do all the old human labor and artificial wombs funding into them

17:06 he says doomsday scenario

[stevens]

17:06 he says doomsday scenario

We literally are having technology that is maybe 100 times better in recycling than they thinked that we would have, moore´s law was discovered/acknowledged in 1965. and this study was made in 1970 or 1970s