Limb Lengthening Forum
Limb Lengthening Surgery => Limb Lengthening Discussions => Topic started by: badgerbrocktree on December 17, 2024, 08:40:17 PM
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Heads up: this is about financially investing in LL's future rather than financing a personal procedure. If this is not appropriate for the forum, apologies.
Hey folks. I firmly believe that this procedure is going to skyrocket in popularity (it seems obvious). I am looking to put money down on the advancement of LL because (1) I want to support it's development and (2) I feel that there is big potential return on investment.
As such, I'm looking at the top companies-- Nuvasive (Precice), Orthofix (Fitbone). Nuvasive is no longer publicly traded , so all we have is Orthofix, which recently merged with Seaspine (2023) and will be releasing a "semi-weightbearing" nail soon (the Troch nail). It will not technically be listed as weightbearing by FDA, but it will have higher capacity than P2.2. IF it was going for a "full-weightbearing" nail, this would be a totally different story. Perhaps I need to do some more research on this nail.
My biggest drawback with Orthofix is it seems Dr Birkholtz is the only top surgeon championing the brand. It seems all of the other surgeons stand firmly behind Precice. In other words, I don't see Nuvasive's market dominance budging.
So, options for now would be to invest in Orthofix or just wait until Nuvasive SOMEDAY goes public (doubtful, b/c, well, Paley is Paley).
What are your thoughts? Or do you know other companies I can look into that are advancing limb lengthening, such as whatever company that invented the Taylor Spatial Frame?
Thanks!
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I would love to invest in Nuvasive. Why? because Precice nail is by far the most used nail in the limb lengthening business.
If it was a publicly traded company, I would have bought some shares.
I think Orthofix stock is trading pretty cheap but there are so many better stocks at the moment
such as quantum computer stocks, border security stocks, space stocks, and AI stocks,
so, I don't have any intentions of buying right now. Maybe in the future.
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I think once Nuvasive successfully launches and maintains a fully weightbearing nail, any opportunity for a huge, quick return on investment will go away.
What's the next great point of innovation after that? Some stem cell / growth plate biological trickery? That sounds DECADES away.
Any other semblance of market opportunity would come from Orthofix successfully launching their own fully-weightbearing nail that's less expensive. But I think they'd have to improve their relationship with Doctors a TON to even come close to Paley's grip on the market. I believe Birkholtz could help make this happen, but Birkholtz is not nearly the businessman Paley is (B feels much more like an earnest doctor of the people than Paley).
And as for G-nail / Betzbone: I think once Nuvasive and Orthofix have weightbearing options on the market, those options will die out or become FAR cheaper.
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Just remember the question you need to answer is not if this surgery will grow in popularity, but if it will outpace the average growth of the US stock market (i.e. the S&P 500).
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Haven't delved into this much, but, if your play here is on limb lengthening only, the SeaSpine play might not make sense. It doesn't only do LL. So Orthofix might only represent a small overall portion of SeaSpine's revenue sources.